I got looking at the 2013 MLB Standings courtesy of ESPN standings and I saw something that was just utterly shocking to me. I was always under the impression that teams and their win/loss record had a direct correlation to their run differential but I may be realizing how wrong that thinking just may be. Looking at the NL East this morning there is only one team, our first place Atlanta Braves, that have a positive run differential. Granted only two teams have winning records in the NL East, the Washington Nationals being the other team, but still the negative run differential is not even close to being even or on the positive side. It is worth noting that the only team with a positive run differential and a losing record is the Kansas City Royals with a 21-24 record and a +11 run differential. Let's take a look at the run differentials of the teams in the East and see if there is, or should be, a direct correlation between the run differential and the teams winning and losing record.
Atlanta Braves
28-18 W/L
+44 differential
Washington Nationals
25-23 W/L
-23 differential
Philadelphia Phillies
23-25 W/L
-34 differential
New York Mets
17-27 W/L
-36 differential
Miami Marlins
13-35 W/L
-77 differential
I understand that we are at the end of May here and this could all change by the All Star break let alone by the end of the season but is the NL East really this bad? If past history tells us anything not too many teams can have a prolonged winning record with such drastic run differential numbers, not to say that it is impossible. The Washington Nationals I think can survive because they have, regardless of what the numbers say right now, an awesome pitching staff and bullpen and should be there in the thick of things all season long. The Phillies without Roy Halladay should struggle a little bit but the offense is capable of carrying the team for a month or so with the possibility of a second wild card berth. The Mets and the Marlins are, well, the Mets and the Marlins which raises an interesting question. Again I know it's early but the Mets and the Phillies almost have identical run differentials and a six game difference in standings so are the Mets not as bad as they are showing right now or are the Phillies headed down hill? The only thing I know for sure at the beginning of the season I predicted an Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees World Series and I am looking pretty good right now, run differentials or not.
